Relief, Tempered

I'm trying to restrain that feeling of relief, just in case the Horseshoe Two Fire has more surprises in store, but as of this morning the beast is 90% contained and burning only at the north end in fuels that are increasingly sparse and discontinuous. Yesterday, June 20, was the first day that Horseshoe Two did not produce a towering column of smoke.

North end of the Horseshoe Two Fire on 21 June 2011

A solemn moment came in this morning's fire briefing, when crews learned of the deaths yesterday of two firefighters who were working on the Blue Ribbon Fire in Florida. Everyone observed a time of silence. The firefighting community is tightly bonded. The names of the two men have not been released, but they worked for the Florida Division of Forestry. The Blue Ribbon Fire started last Thursday and had been declared contained, but flared again yesterday.

Rich Harvey, the Incident Commander in training, was eloquent in pointing out the dangers that all the crews face. He asked the assembled crew bosses what they had heard when the meterologist said it is going to be hot. "Did you hear dehydration?" Apparently some of the more dangerous situations leading to fatalities include being isolated in a quiet part of a big fire; they include times of transition between teams; they include times when the danger seems minimal, and crews let down their guard.

Weather today in the Chiricahua Mountains is expected to be similar to yesterday's, except that the wind is shifting to come from a more northerly direction. Today the diurnal wind will be blowing lightly upslope and up canyons, and is expected to be the most erratic on the lower western edge of the fire near Division B. Dust devils could bedevil the crews working there. (Scroll down to yesterday's full fire map to see the location.) Wednesday and Thursday are both predicted to be days of "excessive" heat.

Most of the perimeter is probably secure, although patrols will continue to search out and destroy any hot spots. Fire teams strive to have a 300 ft black line at the perimeter of a fire, because that usually prevents further spread. (I hope that is still the case, in this year of unprecedented conditions of dryness and wind.)

Rehabilitation is a big theme today. Crews will be hauling out equipment, clearing roads of down trees, removing debris in Cave Creek Canyon (in anticipation of possible flooding) and otherwise eradicating the visible effects of fire suppression.

Tonight a wrap-up meeting with the departing Type 1 fire team will be held at the Rodeo Community Center at 6 PM. Come say thank you!

Under the bluest sky we've seen since May 8, Portal Peak towers above my house. Mostly blackened, it also shows a few patches and streaks of green.

(Photos by Narca)

As Horseshoe Two winds down, it has so far burned 223,214 acres, making it Arizona's fourth largest fire in historical times. If you notice the differences between this morning's and yesterday's maps of the north end, you will see that this morning's has been refined to include slightly less land burned.

The fire season is far from over, even though our big Horseshoe Two is mostly roped and tied. We in Portal are still very concerned for our friends in the Huachucas, where the Monument Fire is expected to burn down Carr Canyon today, toward Highway 92.  Lightning that precedes the monsoon in Arizona hasn't even begun. Fire is ravaging seven states––Texas, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, California and Arizona––and is springing up in others as well. Mary Christensen told the briefing that 146 new fires have been reported just today in Florida and Texas. Texas is in the midst of record drought. Overall, this is the worst year ever recorded for wildfires in the US. Stay safe. Send rain.

Wow! The Fire Lines Held!

Yesterday's raging wind, which gusted to about 50 mph, created serious challenges for fire crews working on both the Horseshoe Two and the Monument Fires. In the Chiricahuas, those lines actually held!  Incident Commander Jim Thomas congratulated the firefighters, saying that the success was the culmination of days of hard work well-done at the active north end of the fire. The crews held onto key terrain, and Horseshoe Two is "still in the box." As of last night, this fire had burned 213,511 acres and was 80% contained.

Map of the Horseshoe Two Fire on 20 June 2011

Yesterday's wind blew from the west, pushing the fire east into Emigrant and Wood Canyons, where it eventually stalled in lighter, discontinuous fuel. Last night during calmer conditions, fire crews mopped up in Marble Canyon and extended the fire edge in Division PP.

Detail of Horseshoe Two Fire map on 20 June 2011

During the high winds, crews were monitoring all the cooler regions of the burn as well, taking no chances that flare-ups would send fire brands aloft to start new fires.

Today the crews plan to secure Wood Canyon, Keating Canyon and the Heller Ranch, and to mop up in Marble Canyon.

A high pressure weather system is building, and light (but potentially erratic) winds are expected from the west and northwest. Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the 90ºs and relative humidity is rising, perhaps as high as 14% overnight. (Yesterday on the Monument Fire a RH value of 0 was recorded!) So conditions will be much more favorable for managing both fires, although firefighters will still need to be careful of surprises caused by shifting, erratic wind, which could raise fire whirls (dust devils carrying flame). Dryness of fuel is just as extreme as it was yesterday.

Air support should be able to fly today for both fires. The air operations chief cautioned that erratic, 20 mph gusts today could still be problematic, so air crews need to be careful.

On other areas of the Horseshoe Two burn, rehabilitation continues today with significant mop-up slated for the interior of the Chiricahua Mountains. Crews will concentrate on rehabbing the area from Paradise south.

Our third Type 1 team is in the process of transitioning to Stan Benes' Type 2 team from the Northern Rockies, which will assume command of the fire on Thursday. A wrap-up meeting for the Type 1 team is being scheduled for 6 PM tomorrow (Tuesday) at the Rodeo Community Center. Watch for an announcement! It is the community's chance to thank the departing crews for their long hours of difficult work, conducted in the highly professional manner we've seen in all the Type 1 teams that have worked here.

Sign in downtown Portal (slightly embellished)

(Photos by Narca)

We are so, so close to seeing an end to this ordeal in the Chiricahuas. Let there be no surprises at this late stage!

Yesterday evening, it was possible to listen to the meeting in Sierra Vista about the Monument Fire, using the Volke website for streaming events over the internet. Click on "Volke" if you want to sign up for future events.

Yesterday was very intense for folks in the way of the Monument Fire. Fire whirls cast fire brands across Highway 92 in several places, and the live audio feed from the scanner that tuned into radio used by fire crews was full of pleas for help at several locales. The Facebook page for the Monument Fire was in a state of pandemonium, but the voices of firefighters on the radio sounded cool-headed and professional.

Plenty of help is on the way for our friends in Sierra Vista. The Monument Fire is the #1 fire priority in the nation. The National Guard is coming, primarily to help with jobs like security of evacuated areas, because they aren't trained to do the actual firefighting. Fort Huachuca will be receiving help from other bases as well. Now that air support can fly, the fort and the fire team have plenty of craft to put into the air.

I was amazed to learn that the Antelope Fire (which consumed 2000 acres north of the Monument Fire before it was contained) was started by a spark from the blade of a bulldozer striking a rock. In retrospect, crews are actually glad for that fire because it created a good blackline on the base, according to a speaker at last night's informational meeting.

As of last night, the Monument Fire had burned 26,956 acres and was 27% contained.

Coronado National Forest Supervisor Jim Upchurch said at last night's meeting that the Forest has assembled a fire team to advise them not just on the current fires, but on approaching the Forest as a whole, during this season of unprecedented fire danger. Their exact goals weren't clear to me. He also said that meterologists are not seeing any indication of the monsoon's arrival very soon.

That seems slightly at variance with the rise in humidity announced at this morning's Horseshoe Two Fire briefing. We always look for a rise in humidity preceeding the onset of the summer rains. In fact, the indicator I use is the appearance of tarantulas. Male tarantulas emerge when humidity rises, because they can more easily sense the presence of females still tucked into their burrows. Usually a rain follows the tarantulas' emergence by 1-3 days. So if anyone starts seeing tarantulas, let us know!

Mary Christensen, information officer for Horseshoe Two, said this morning that a delay in the rains will enable more rehab work to be done here before possible floods come. (But in the Huachuchas, a delay could extend the burning!)

We are seeing more wild refugees driven down from the burnt areas of the Chiricahuas. Bears have been visiting feeders around the town of Portal, and one found us last night. Another evening visitor was this Striped Skunk. Water put out for wildlife has been bringing in everything from Gray Foxes to Western Diamondback Rattlesnakes. One big diamondback (at least 5 feet long) spent a half hour sucking water from a leaky faucet.

Extremes

At last night's community meeting with the fire team, Rich Harvey (an incident commander) emphasized the extremes which the firefighters are encountering in their dealings with the Horseshoe Two fire––unprecedented in his 32 years of experience. (Very likely, firefolk on the Wallow and Murphy Complex fires are finding the same extremes.) None of the professionals in this Type 1 fire team have ever seen such dry fuels.

Dead fuels are classified as 1-hour fuel (like grass), 10-hour fuel, 100-hour fuel, and 1000-hour fuel (a big, down log). 100-hour fuel takes 100 hours to dry out enough that it will burn. Here in the Chiricahuas, 100-hour fuel is burning in only 3 hours, and that low a value has never before been seen by this team.

The amount of strong wind is blowing minds. Red-flag day follows red-flag day, and today we have another. Strong winds push fire into strong uphill runs, creating crown fires that take out stands of trees. The amount of energy being released in one hour's worth of crown fire in the Chiricahua Mountains is the equivalent of the energy released by an atomic bomb. Such a fire chute occurred when Horseshoe Two raged in only 3 hours from the Saulsbury Saddle line, up to and through Onion Saddle.

Yet, even with those serious extremes, a mosaic burn is being achieved in many areas through use of techniques that moderate the fire's growth and spread, including lighting ridge fires at night to back slowly down into canyons, and meet the oncoming fire before it rushes up those same ridges. Of all the techniques tried by the teams so far, the backburning is working best on this fire, under these conditions. Moderating the fire not only promotes a mosaic burn, but also protects soils for future regrowth.

A photo of the junction of Rustler and Barfoot roads showed many of the big trees still intact, so some of the mosaic burn still happened, even in this intensely-burned high country.

We also learned more about one crew boss's experience as they battled the holocaust in Whitetail Canyon, a situation vastly complicated by constantly-changing high winds that demanded the utmost in quick responses and flexibility. Plans had been carefully laid for protecting Whitetail, including a line laid by hand that joined the back road into Chiricahua National Monument, a dozer line, and structure protection. Then a big blast of wind from the south changed everything. One juniper flared and sent firebrands in all directions, and fire jumped the lines. A column of blazing hot smoke rose thousands of feet into the air, then rolled and started to collapse. That is a firefighter's nightmare, because a huge collapsing column sends fire everywhere as superheated smoke hits the ground. The worst-case scenario was narrowly avoided in Whitetail when another big wind gust suddenly straightened the column. Firefighters were beaten back from Whitetail by these volatile and dangerous conditions; when they were able to return, they found that the sprinklers and other structure protection in place had saved 18 of the 20 residences there.

A similar extreme event happened further south along the western flank of the fire, when the fire was being pushed upcanyon by very strong wind, which suddenly entered another canyon with different orientation, and sheared the fire column 180º, setting the entire column (thousands of feet high) to spinning. Suddenly the fire turned into the faces of the crew there.

These events involving collapsing columns of fire and smoke are quite rare, and this is only the second time in this operation chief's career that he has ever witnessed one.

One photo graphically illustrated why residents and other people are not yet being allowed back into the burned areas: a gaping hole where a tree once stood was still burning deep in the ground. Fires can burn into big root systems for days, making the terrain dangerous.

More than 1200 fire personnel are now working on Horseshoe Two. They are on the lines 24 hours a day, in two shifts. People in the planning department have longer days than those out on the fire lines: they are spending 16 - 20 hours a day working on strategy, as the fire moves and conditions constantly change.

The new planned perimeter lines are out in the flats, with much lower fuel supply and easy terrain. There they should finally be able to fully contain this fire. Rich Harvey said that they estimate that Horseshoe Two is now 45% contained. He is cautious about calling a fire contained because, "If I say it's contained and something happens, they name it after me and I'm in big trouble."

Other agencies help and advise the fire teams. US Forest Service staff are interested in resource protection, and they make sure that important details like the locations of crucial habitat and Spotted Owl nests are considered when fire plans are formulated.

The fire bosses said that two weeks of working on a fire like Horseshoe Two is worth years of experience of working on more normal fires.