The Fires, Mainly Horseshoe Two

Progress continues on containing the Horseshoe Two Fire (now at 184,198 acres) in the Chiricahua Mountains, although challenging conditions also continue as we face another red flag day, when winds from the southwest are expected to gust above 35 mph. At the 6 AM briefing to fire crews, the meteorologist noted that already this early in the day, winds on ridges were over 30 mph, even though in the valley it seemed calm. Last night––a time when winds usually die down––there were gusts to 40 mph.

Horseshoe Two Fire map for June 17, 2011

In the southwestern part of the fire (divisions A and B), the burnout continues in John Long and Rucker Canyons, and a great deal has been accomplished there. But the job isn't yet finished, and crews were cautioned that with these winds and the unprecedented dryness of fuel, the fire can still jump containment and go anywhere. Containing this part of the fire perimeter is within reach, but not yet in the bag. Work has progressed in Division B to the point that crews there are waiting for Division A to also make it to the point that the open perimeter can safely be pinched off.

Detail of active western part of Horseshoe Two Fire

The trickier and more difficult job is at the north end of the fire. Fire is established in upper Wood and Emigrant Canyons. Here in the north, several canyons are lining up with the wind, setting the stage for possible high-intensity runs in Wood, Buckhorn, Maverick and Emigrant Canyons. Mountain peaks to the south of that line of canyons could deflect the prevailing wind, generating down-canyon flow. We have on our hands another day of extreme fire behavior.

Detail of active northern perimeter of Horseshoe Two Fire

At the northern perimeter line, crews have begun to fire the flat lands, to create a blackline that will hopefully arrest the oncoming body of the fire. Firing has been difficult and very slow because firefighters are working into the prevailing wind; great care has to be taken that firing operations don't spread north but instead accomplish what they are trying to achieve: setting up a solid containment line. Securing this northernmost perimeter is key to beginning work in Division MM. So if winds allow, more burning out will proceed today, focused on Buckhorn Basin, Emigrant Canyon and Marble Canyon. If winds don't allow, crews will focus more on structure protection at local ranches.

Mop-up work continues along the contained western perimeter and in Chiricahua National Monument. Whitetail Canyon is cooling; the danger there has probably passed. Crews working in the burnt areas will be rehabilitating any damage from suppression efforts. The Burn Area Emergency Response (BAER) team has arrived and begins its work today. They will identify the highest priority areas for rehabilitation.

The big repeater in the Rodeo area being used for radio communications will be moved today closer to Bowie, because the primary need is now at the north end of the Chiricahuas.

Competition for fire crews and other resources is becoming more intense as other fires menace the region. Horseshoe Two currently has 1335 fire personnel. Crews currently on the job were asked whether they are interested in extending their work period from the normal 14 days to 21 or even 30 days. The need is extreme this year.

Bill Edwards confirmed to me this morning that the Monument Fire in the Huachuca Mountains has again jumped Highway 92 at Stump Canyon. At last report, it was roaring toward the San Pedro River, but has been held south of Hereford Road. As our neighboring mountain range, the Huachucas will be subject to the same extreme fire behavior and red flag conditions today that are expected for the Chiricahuas.

The Monument Fire has burned 18,580 acres and is 15% contained. There has been a big, much-needed jump in the number of fire personnel on the job, up now to 764. At the north end of the fire, a line is being prepared from Hunter Canyon to Carr Canyon. Forest Road 4781 is being prepared for a potential burnout. Another meeting to inform the Sierra Vista community of progress on the Monument Fire will be held this evening at 6 PM at the Windemere Hotel.

Community

During disaster, people come together. We connect more deeply with each other. And the disastrous big fires raging in Arizona are no exception. Our friends are invaluable, as we stand together and nurture each other during crisis.

From my farflung net of friends come a couple of offerings for today's post. Brad Tatham happened to be flying over the Chiricahua Mountains on June 14 and snapped these photos out the airplane window. On this day, the smoke columns were rising from a burnout in Rucker Canyon and from Chiricahua National Monument (a column that was visible all the way to Kolb Road in Tucson). Forest between the major smoke columns has already burned.

Horseshoe Two Fire in Chiricahua Mountains, June 14, 2011

(Photos by Brad Tatham)

Yesterday I was hearing from friends caught up in the fast-growing Monument Fire in the Huachuca Mountains in Sierra Vista. Getting real news of that fire from official sources has been extremely difficult. Even the inciweb.org site failed to list it for many days. (I've been wondering if that was because the Type 1 fire team called to the job had its hands so full, and because the scene was so chaotic as people dealt with the Ash Canyon firestorm, that at first accurate information couldn't be condensed to the standard digests usually posted on inciweb.)

Several friends, refugees from Ash Canyon, were gathering at Casa de San Pedro B&B in Hereford, a truly lovely place where we often settle with our tour groups. Peg Abbott (with the help of Bob Rodrigues) decided to pitch in with a nice meal for our friends (and friends of friends) who found shelter at the B&B after evacuating their homes, so Alan and I grabbed a few treats from Trader Joe's, and drove into Sierra Vista in late afternoon to join them.

As the Huachuca Mountains loomed larger, we could see the Monument Fire burning at the crest of Miller Peak, and then heading down the east slope of the peak––even though it was moving into the wind. Conditions are so dry in the mountain ranges of southeast Arizona that fire is behaving in ways rarely seen, including following fuels into the wind. That has been happening in the Chiricahuas, and now we see it happening in the Huachucas as well.

Descriptions of the firestorm that hit Ash Canyon sound like another example of a huge column (20,000 ft+) of superheated air, fire and smoke collapsing on itself, as started to happen in Whitetail Canyon in the Chiricahuas. Now word is slowly trickling out about the aftermath of that firestorm. It appears that at least 40 homes were badly damaged or destroyed. Part of the problem of assessing the situation is that going in there is still dangerous. Meanwhile homeowners live with acutely uncomfortable anxiety, as they wait for word of the outcome. So far it appears that Bob Behrstock, Karen LeMay and Ted Mouras have homes to return to. However, hot spots are still flaring, and it is too soon to be certain of anything.

The latest statistics for the Monument Fire: size is 9,300 acres; 17% containment. For Horseshoe Two: size is 184,198 acres; 60% containment.

And today? The wind continues to blow, creating red flag conditions. The Monument Fire continues to spread in the high country of the Huachuca Mountains and to force evacuations, and in the Chiricahuas, the fire crews continue to  attempt to moderate the intensity of Horseshoe Two Fire and to contain it within a backburned perimeter. Due to extradordinary conditions, these aren't normal fires.

But last night? Last night was a very welcome respite from the tension of dealing with disaster. Thank you, Peg! Thank you, Karl and Patrick. It was an excellent evening.

And the Fire Burns On

The meterologist at today's fire briefing said that winds will again blow today at 20-25 mph, creating squirrelly conditions in some of the canyons, especially in West Turkey Creek and Pinery. Heat is increasing and will be over 90º today, with extremely low relative humidity of 3-5%.

Horseshoe Two Fire map at June 14 briefing

The fire may be pushed further south in the southwest corner (section B). As extreme conditions continue, with record ERC values of 110-112 and 1000-hour fuels burning in the single digits, extreme behavior can continue, and the fire lines continue to be very dangerous to work. In the northern division PP, fire crews expect to see independent torching of trees and groups of trees, but no significant runs, unless winds again gust unexpectedly.

In one bright bit of news, the burnout on the west has been carried to the perimeter in division DD. After a hard-fought effort, crews managed to contain it there. Mop-up work remains to insure that there are no troublesome flare-ups.

Detail of fire map showing finished burnout in DD

and progress in Chiricahua National Monument

In Chiricahua National Monument, a slow prescription burn continues, ignited from the ridges. From the heights, it burns slowly down, creating a burn of much lower intensity. Fire is in lower Rhyolite Canyon. The difference between this type of fire management and uncontrolled fire is graphically illustrated by the difference between the post-fire condition of South Fork (where low-intensity burning was achieved) and the Rustler Park-Barfoot Park-Onion Saddle area (which was mostly cremated in a huge, uncontrolled, high-intensity run). As horrific as the amount of burning appears on the fire map, and as huge as the area covered is, much of that which was backburned is low to medium intensity. Soils there will be in better shape, and recovery should be faster.

One of the inciweb photos shows a Yellow-eyed Junco alive and well in the ashes of Rustler Park.

Some news of the Monument Fire was announced. They are hoping for a containment date of June 18. I'm guessing that control has been easier there because, unlike the Horseshoe Two fire, it started in the low country instead of up high, and so was more manageable at the very start. Time––and wind––will tell.

The Summer of Fire

Smoke from two regions of the Horseshoe Two Fire on 11 June 2011. 

To the left is smoke from the West Turkey Creek area; to the right, from Whitetail Canyon. (Photos by Narca)

Firefighters confronting the Horseshoe Two Fire in Arizona's Chiricahua Mountains continue to encounter unprecedented fuel dryness. The values being found for both dead and live fuels are lower than ever before recorded in a wildfire.

Those record dry conditions are shared by the other Sky Island ranges in southeast Arizona. The record freeze last winter damaged or killed many oaks and pines, further drying them, and that damage (coupled with extreme winter drought) has greatly intensified the fire danger. We've all been holding our breaths that the other magnificent ranges will be spared the inferno being experienced by the Chiricahuas and the White Mountains, but a new fire began yesterday afternoon at the southern terminus of the Huachuca Mountains, in Coronado National Memorial, and already it is described as "massive." It was estimated at today's briefing to have burned about 3,000 acres in less than 24 hours. There were low whistles among the firemen when they heard how fast it has moved. (For comparison, Horseshoe Two grew to over 9,000 acres on the first day, when it was subjected to 50 mph winds.)

I'm not in a position to add solid information about this new Monument Fire, other than to say that friends living in Ash Canyon have already been evacuated, and as they left, they could see fire on the ridge above Ash Canyon. We have had no lightning. This fire, like Horseshoe Two, was human-caused, and the Coronado National Memorial was closed to public entry at the time the fire began. It lies along the Mexican border, and the fire began in the US just a short distance from the border. As with Horseshoe Two, the evidence implicating illegal entrants is entirely circumstantial. (But, duh!)

Returning to what is happening in the Chiricahuas, weather today is expected to be like yesterday's, only hotter. That means another day of wind at 30-35 mph on the ridges and 20-25 mph in the valleys. Conditions are likely to slip into another red-flag alert. Most of the fire movement is expected to be in the north, where it has reached Cochise Head. The planned fire perimeter lies along Marble and Emigrant Canyons in the north; terrain here should be much more manageable for holding the line.

Map of Horseshoe Two Fire on 13 June 11

In Whitetail Canyon, mop-up operations continue, to assure that residents are safe when they are allowed back in.

In the active western perimeter, winds will likely continue to eddy, causing erratic and unpredictable fire behavior. Yesterday some fire moved across the line in high wind just west of the monument, but it was contained, and crews this morning did not seem concerned about that breach.

Detail of active north edge of fire, 13 June 11

About two-thirds of Chiricahua National Monument has now burned, including Bonita Canyon up to Massai Point (a larger area than shown on the map, which doesn't reflect work done during the night). Crews have been carefully igniting ridges and letting the fire back down into the canyons in order to achieve a lower-intensity burn.

Today and tonight, firing operations will continue in the monument and in the section marked "Div B" on the upper map.

This rather beautiful map shows the progression of the Horseshoe Two Fire since its inception on May 8 through June 11, with the early period given in cooler blues. The fire now stands at 148,505 acres and is 48% contained. The estimated containment date is still June 22. The fire's growth potential and terrain difficulty remain extreme.

Arizonans will never forget this summer of fire, beyond all the bounds of what we've known before. And what happens, I wonder, when the pre-monsoonal lightning storms arrive?

Extremes

At last night's community meeting with the fire team, Rich Harvey (an incident commander) emphasized the extremes which the firefighters are encountering in their dealings with the Horseshoe Two fire––unprecedented in his 32 years of experience. (Very likely, firefolk on the Wallow and Murphy Complex fires are finding the same extremes.) None of the professionals in this Type 1 fire team have ever seen such dry fuels.

Dead fuels are classified as 1-hour fuel (like grass), 10-hour fuel, 100-hour fuel, and 1000-hour fuel (a big, down log). 100-hour fuel takes 100 hours to dry out enough that it will burn. Here in the Chiricahuas, 100-hour fuel is burning in only 3 hours, and that low a value has never before been seen by this team.

The amount of strong wind is blowing minds. Red-flag day follows red-flag day, and today we have another. Strong winds push fire into strong uphill runs, creating crown fires that take out stands of trees. The amount of energy being released in one hour's worth of crown fire in the Chiricahua Mountains is the equivalent of the energy released by an atomic bomb. Such a fire chute occurred when Horseshoe Two raged in only 3 hours from the Saulsbury Saddle line, up to and through Onion Saddle.

Yet, even with those serious extremes, a mosaic burn is being achieved in many areas through use of techniques that moderate the fire's growth and spread, including lighting ridge fires at night to back slowly down into canyons, and meet the oncoming fire before it rushes up those same ridges. Of all the techniques tried by the teams so far, the backburning is working best on this fire, under these conditions. Moderating the fire not only promotes a mosaic burn, but also protects soils for future regrowth.

A photo of the junction of Rustler and Barfoot roads showed many of the big trees still intact, so some of the mosaic burn still happened, even in this intensely-burned high country.

We also learned more about one crew boss's experience as they battled the holocaust in Whitetail Canyon, a situation vastly complicated by constantly-changing high winds that demanded the utmost in quick responses and flexibility. Plans had been carefully laid for protecting Whitetail, including a line laid by hand that joined the back road into Chiricahua National Monument, a dozer line, and structure protection. Then a big blast of wind from the south changed everything. One juniper flared and sent firebrands in all directions, and fire jumped the lines. A column of blazing hot smoke rose thousands of feet into the air, then rolled and started to collapse. That is a firefighter's nightmare, because a huge collapsing column sends fire everywhere as superheated smoke hits the ground. The worst-case scenario was narrowly avoided in Whitetail when another big wind gust suddenly straightened the column. Firefighters were beaten back from Whitetail by these volatile and dangerous conditions; when they were able to return, they found that the sprinklers and other structure protection in place had saved 18 of the 20 residences there.

A similar extreme event happened further south along the western flank of the fire, when the fire was being pushed upcanyon by very strong wind, which suddenly entered another canyon with different orientation, and sheared the fire column 180º, setting the entire column (thousands of feet high) to spinning. Suddenly the fire turned into the faces of the crew there.

These events involving collapsing columns of fire and smoke are quite rare, and this is only the second time in this operation chief's career that he has ever witnessed one.

One photo graphically illustrated why residents and other people are not yet being allowed back into the burned areas: a gaping hole where a tree once stood was still burning deep in the ground. Fires can burn into big root systems for days, making the terrain dangerous.

More than 1200 fire personnel are now working on Horseshoe Two. They are on the lines 24 hours a day, in two shifts. People in the planning department have longer days than those out on the fire lines: they are spending 16 - 20 hours a day working on strategy, as the fire moves and conditions constantly change.

The new planned perimeter lines are out in the flats, with much lower fuel supply and easy terrain. There they should finally be able to fully contain this fire. Rich Harvey said that they estimate that Horseshoe Two is now 45% contained. He is cautious about calling a fire contained because, "If I say it's contained and something happens, they name it after me and I'm in big trouble."

Other agencies help and advise the fire teams. US Forest Service staff are interested in resource protection, and they make sure that important details like the locations of crucial habitat and Spotted Owl nests are considered when fire plans are formulated.

The fire bosses said that two weeks of working on a fire like Horseshoe Two is worth years of experience of working on more normal fires.

Walt Anderson's Photos of Horseshoe Two

Walt Anderson is a long-time friend and fellow artist who teaches at Prescott College. He was in Chiricahua National Monument when the Horseshoe Two Fire jumped containment lines at Saulsbury Saddle and raged through Rustler and Barfoot Parks. His photos document that awesome, terrible event.

Smoke boils over the distant Chiricahua Mountains.

(All photos by Walt Anderson)

From Chiricahua National Monument

Horseshoe Two Fire from Sugarloaf in Chiricahua National Monument

An unearthly light filters through the smoke from Barfoot.

Barfoot in flames

The glowing dot after the inferno is Barfoot Lookout.

Current Fire Strategy

Yesterday the wind was calmer, and fire crews working on the Horseshoe Two Fire (which has burned for more than a month in the Chiricahua Mountains) were able to gain some ground in their efforts to contain this fire. Today's fire map shows the areas of active fire (red boundary lines) and of the planned containment boundary (dotted black lines).

Fire map on 11 June 2011

The original plan called for stopping the fire in the interior of the Chiricahuas at several key ridges and points. However, given the unusually extreme conditions of dryness and wind, it has not been possible to contain the fire within the rougher terrain. In high winds (of which we've had plenty!), whirlwinds of fire cast embers a couple of miles away from the main fire, and create new fire starts. The primary places where containment efforts are working are down in the flats at the base of the mountains, and that is why the new fallback lines are drawn so far away from the currently active fire. The crews are bringing the fire to them, where it can be managed.

Within the Chiricahua National Monument, fire is burning in Jesse James Canyon and upper Rhyolite Canyon. Here standard suppression tools are not being used, beyond protecting structures and possibly igniting fire on ridges, using helicopters, in order to create a lower intensity burn. Suppression tools carry their own impacts, and here fire is mainly being allowed to burn through the monument, and fire lines are going around it. The very rugged cliffs and hoodoos should afford some natural barriers to fire, and it's my hope that a mosaic burn can happen, as long as wind remains calmer while fire is moving through the monument.

Detail of Horseshoe Two Fire entering Chiricahua National Monument

In Pinery Canyon and West Turkey Creek, the fire was active yesterday due to wind flow through the canyons, but it was constrained by water drops.

Detail of active fire in West Turkey Creek area on 11 June 2011

At the far northern edge of the fire, lighter fuels will be running out, and segments of the perimeter line are being connected to achieve containment. In Whitetail Canyon, mop-up work continues today.

Better news is that some of the big trees in the Rustler Park area survived. Apparently not many, but some is better than none, which was originally feared to be the case. In other areas, glimmers of green remain. We won't really know the condition of the high country until the smoke clears, ashes settle, and the first rains start to revive the burn. Raymond VanBuskirk hiked Bear Canyon behind our house, which burned intensively during the first night of the fire, and found a few big madrone trees still alive.

A community meeting with the fire team is set for 6 PM tonight at the Rodeo Community Center. Joining them will be representatives from the Coronado National Forest, National Park Service, and State of Arizona.

As of this morning, the burn covers 134,615 acres and is 45% contained. 23 structures have been destroyed, most of them outbuildings. 1,153 people are working to put out the Horseshoe Two Fire.

Wrenching News

I don't think I can report dispassionately the latest developments in the Horseshoe Two Fire, raging in the Chiricahua Mountains. When the fire jumped containment lines near Saulsbury Saddle, it roared through Rustler Park, Onion Saddle, Barfoot Park, and the high ridges so familiar to everyone who has roamed the high Chiricahuas. I am hearing from friends who are heartbroken. It is too soon to know just what has been lost.

In the other direction, fire raced in high winds through the village of Paradise, toward Whitetail Canyon, and Helen reported that last night Jhus Canyon was burning, next to Whitetail. So far people's homes and historic structures like the George Walker House in Paradise have been spared, thanks to thorough preparatory work by fire crews.

After the two weeks of very hard work by Dugger Hughes' Type 1 fire team, they have to feel terribly disheartened at the end of their rotation here, to see the fire escape because two firebrands were thrown by high winds, and started new fires 1.5 and 2 miles away. But without their valiant efforts, the outcome would have been so much worse. We likely would have seen the eradication of communities too.

We have been very focused, understandably, on the crisis in our backyard. Similar fires are raging throughout drought-stricken Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas. The Bear Wallow Fire near Alpine AZ just started, and yet blew to over 100,000 acres in just two days, as it roars through pine forest on the Mogollon Rim.

South of the border in Mexico, the entire Sierra Madre Occidental has been going up in flames, and Mexico does not have the resources which we have to deal with fire. So it is all just burning. "Sierra Madre" means the "Mother Mountains" and they are the heart of the habitats we so treasure in the Chiricahuas and other sky islands of the Southwest. The Sierra Madre has been an evolutionary cauldron for New World pine trees, and oaks, and madrones. They are the home of Eared Quetzals, Mountain Trogons, Thick-billed Parrots--and, of course, people.

You can see the extent of the fires on Google Earth. Many Norteamericanos have traveled the rail between Los Mochis and Chihuahua City, which runs through Copper Canyon and Tarahumara country. People in Portal have often sent supplies--ranging from clothes to school supplies to vitamins--to the mission school in Creel (visits which ceased when violence in Mexico escalated to the point that friends in Mexico advised against further trips for the time being). That region is burning. I may have missed something, but so far I haven't seen a single report in US newspapers about the plight of our neighbors to the south and the immense fires they are suffering.

The Border communities that are bearing the brunt of problems associated with illegal trafficking (fires, killings, home break-ins) are also communities with deep ties to Mexico. Many of us have travelled there for decades. We have led tours there, working with Mexican co-leaders. Our schools have exchange programs. Our biologists have worked with Mexican biologists to monitor and conserve species that are important to both countries, whether jaguars, or waterfowl, or parrots, or native fish, or prairie dogs. The cross-border relationship is vibrant, mutually beneficial, and highly valued.

We can affirm our continuing goodwill and friendship with Mexico while still acknowledging the serious border problems. It is important that other regions of the US understand that the border problems are real and must be addressed. Distant problems are all too easy to ignore. Please know that the outcry in Border communities is not based on prejudice, for the most part, but on actual, serious problems, which must be dealt with for the good of the whole country.

Mexicans are and have been our friends, and we lament the crises they are now suffering--crises of drug-related violence, of rampant fire, of economy.

The Long Siege Lengthens

As we thought we were seeing an end to the fire and its attendant stresses (with containment being predicted for June 22), the Horseshoe Two Fire has broken free of containment lines to move across Rock Creek Canyon and northeast toward Paradise, East Whitetail Canyon, and Chiricahua National Monument. The Monument is temporarily closed to visitors, and residents of Paradise and Whitetail are being evacuated––again, in the case of Paradise. One Whitetail resident was told yesterday that the fire was "still a day away" from her home.

Unexpected high winds caused the fire to jump to the north side of Rock Canyon, generating flame lengths 200 feet high in a veritable firestorm. (At the start of the fire on May 8, Barney Tomberlin––one of Portal's volunteer firemen who tackled the new conflagration––also estimated those initial flames to be 200 feet high and the convection column of smoke to be 20,000 feet high.)

Those appalling flames released embers that caused two new fires to start near Saulsbury Saddle, more than a mile and a half from the containment lines. One of those new fires had grown to 400 acres by yesterday morning.

Firefighters had to disengage from working the line in Rustler Park yesterday because the danger was too great. (Thus far, there have only been 7 injuries, thankfully all minor.)

News from the southwest part of the fire was better: the burnout along a 6-mile stretch of Tex Canyon Road was finished yesterday. That part of the perimeter is more secure, although smoke from the operation was very heavy and contributed to the pall that continues to shroud the northern end of the Chiricahuas, making breathing very uncomfortable and difficult for residents there.

The overall fire size is now 86,140 acres and is considered 50% contained (a drop from yesterday's 75% containment figure). The fire crews had begun to scale back, and now 825 personnel remain of the 900+ that were here a few days ago. With the new menace from the fire, will that scaling back continue?

When a crisis is viewed from a distance (right now, South Carolina), questions multiply. If any of our Portal friends send more information today, I'll post it.

What friends have been sending me is a link to the New York Times article questioning whether the fire was started by illegal immigrants. In the strictest sense, it is an accurate article. The only proof is circumstantial. However, the article also seems to diminish and discount the actual, daily effects of illegal immigration and smuggling on our communities, among them the settlements in and around the Chiricahua Mountains.

I would like to challenge the New York Times to send a reporter to live in one of our Border communities for a year, interacting frequently with Border Patrol, and then to write an investigative article about the real problems caused by illegal traffic of both humans and drugs. It sounds like Pulitzer Prize material to me.